The 2025-26 Premier League season has one more story to tell, and it is a big one. While Arsenal celebrate their first title in 22 years and the Champions League places have been settled, the bottom of the table is heading for a dramatic final-day shootout. Tottenham Hotspur, a club that played in the Champions League final just seven years ago, are in 17th place with 38 points. West Ham United, two points behind on 36, are 18th. One of them will join Burnley, Wolves and Leeds in the Championship next season. All 10 final-day fixtures kick off at 4pm on Sunday May 24. Follow every match live on iScore.ai.
The relegation table
With one round of matches remaining, the bottom of the Premier League looks like this:
- 17th: Tottenham Hotspur - 38 points (P37 W9 D11 L17, GD -10)
- 18th: West Ham United - 36 points (P37 W9 D9 L19, GD -22)
- 19th: Leeds United - 21 points (already relegated)
- 20th: Burnley - 19 points (already relegated)
Wolverhampton Wanderers were confirmed as the third relegated club last weekend. They finish their miserable season at Turf Moor against already-down Burnley in a dead rubber. Everything else at the bottom comes down to Tottenham against Everton and West Ham against Leeds.
How Tottenham got here
This is not where Tottenham expected to be. The club spent heavily in the summer, appointed a manager with European pedigree, and started the season with ambitions of pushing for the top four. Instead, they have sleepwalked into the worst crisis in their modern history.
The problems have been multiple and compounding. The defense has been leaky all season, conceding 57 goals in 37 matches. The midfield has lacked control and aggression. The attack, despite individual quality, has been inconsistent. The manager has chopped and changed formations, rotating between a back four and a back three without ever settling on a system that the players clearly understood.
The low point came in the north London derby in November, when Eberechi Eze scored a hat-trick in a humiliation at the Emirates. That result left Spurs in the bottom half and the atmosphere around the club turned toxic. The manager was sacked in December. His replacement stabilized results briefly but could not generate any sustained momentum.
Tuesday night's 2-1 defeat at Chelsea was the latest blow. Spurs took the lead at Stamford Bridge but conceded twice, the second goal coming from a set piece, and could not find an equalizer. The result meant their survival goes to the final day. The margin for error is now gone.
How West Ham got here
West Ham's decline has been more gradual but no less painful for their supporters. The club finished in the top half in each of the previous three seasons and won the Europa Conference League in 2023. But the squad has aged, key players have departed, and the replacements have not been good enough.
The defensive record tells the story. West Ham have conceded 65 goals in 37 matches, the fourth-worst in the division. Only Burnley (74), Leeds (67), and Wolverhampton (75) have shipped more. All three of those clubs are already down. West Ham's attack has been marginally better, scoring 47, but it has not been enough to offset the defensive collapse.
The manager has tried different approaches. A low block, a press, a more open style. Nothing has worked consistently. The team has won consecutive matches only once all season, in October. Since the turn of the year, they have managed just four wins in 18 league games. That form over a full season would have relegated them weeks ago.
Final day fixtures and scenarios
The mathematics are straightforward. Tottenham control their own destiny. West Ham do not.
Scenario 1: West Ham do not beat Leeds. If West Ham draw or lose at the London Stadium, they are relegated regardless of what Tottenham do. Spurs would be safe even with a heavy defeat against Everton because the two-point gap cannot be overcome.
Scenario 2: West Ham beat Leeds and Tottenham lose to Everton. This is the nightmare scenario for Spurs. West Ham would move to 39 points, level with Tottenham, but Spurs would stay up on goal difference. Tottenham's goal difference is -10, West Ham's is -22. A 12-goal swing on the final day is functionally impossible. So even in this scenario, Spurs likely survive.
Scenario 3: West Ham beat Leeds and Tottenham draw or win. Tottenham are safe. West Ham are down regardless of their own result because Tottenham would have 39 or 41 points.
In practice, West Ham need to win and need Tottenham to lose. And even then, they need to overcome a 12-goal gap in goal difference, which is extremely unlikely. The probabilities heavily favor Tottenham staying up. But football has a habit of producing exactly the result that nobody expects on the final day.
Tottenham vs Everton: match breakdown
Tottenham host Everton at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and the atmosphere will be a mix of anxiety and defiance. Everton have had a solid season under David Moyes, sitting comfortably in mid-table with nothing to play for. That could make them dangerous: freed from pressure, they can play with freedom.
Tottenham's task is simple. Avoid defeat. A draw is enough. A win guarantees survival with something to spare. The smart approach is to control the game, keep possession, and not take unnecessary risks. But Spurs have not been a smart team this season. They have been erratic, emotionally fragile, and prone to making bad decisions at bad moments.
The key for Tottenham will be the opening 20 minutes. If they concede early, the tension will ratchet up and the crowd could turn. If they score first, the stadium will relax and Everton's motivation may wane. Expect Tottenham to start aggressively, pressing high, trying to get the goal that changes the mood. Everton will be content to sit deep and hit on the counter, as many teams have done successfully at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season.
Team news will be critical. Tottenham's defensive injuries have been a season-long problem, and they may be forced into another reshuffled back line. Everton have a relatively clean bill of health, another small advantage for the visitors.
West Ham vs Leeds: match breakdown
West Ham host Leeds United at the London Stadium, and this is a fixture that should, on paper, produce a home win. Leeds are already relegated, rooted to 19th place with just 21 points all season. They have won four times in 37 matches. Their away record is abysmal.
But relegated teams on the final day can be unpredictable. Some roll over. Others play with a freedom they have not shown all season, liberated from the weight of expectation. Leeds have talented players who have underperformed. A final-day exhibition, with nothing to lose, could bring out their best.
West Ham cannot afford any complacency. They must win. A draw is not enough. A loss is catastrophic. The pressure on the players will be immense, and the London Stadium crowd can turn quickly if things do not go to plan. The first goal is everything. If West Ham score early, they should win comfortably. If they concede first, the anxiety will become suffocating.
The tactical approach is likely to be direct. West Ham do not have the technical quality to play through Leeds with patient possession. Expect crosses into the box, set pieces, and physical pressure. Leeds will try to play on the break, using pace to exploit the spaces that West Ham leave as they push forward.
Head-to-head comparison
The comparison between the two clubs this season is revealing. Tottenham have scored more goals (47 to 47, level), conceded fewer (57 to 65), and collected more points (38 to 36). Both have won nine matches. Tottenham have drawn two more than West Ham, which is the difference in the table.
The underlying numbers favor Tottenham. Their expected goals against is lower, their pressing numbers are better, and their results against the top six have been marginally less bad. West Ham have been the poorer team over 37 matches, and the table reflects that.
But none of that matters on Sunday. Final-day relegation battles are decided by nerve, not by data. The team that handles the occasion better will survive.
Financial cost of relegation
The financial consequences of dropping out of the Premier League are enormous for both clubs, but especially for Tottenham. Spurs have a stadium debt of over £600 million, a wage bill that assumes top-flight revenue, and commercial contracts with clauses tied to Premier League status. Relegation would trigger a financial restructuring that could take years to recover from.
West Ham's financial situation is less leveraged but still severe. The move to the London Stadium was supposed to provide a platform for sustained Premier League competition. Relegation would slash broadcast revenue by an estimated £100 million or more in the first year alone, with further reductions in commercial and matchday income.
Both clubs have parachute payments to soften the blow, but these cover only a fraction of the lost revenue. Player sales would be inevitable. Key assets would leave at reduced prices because buying clubs know relegated teams need to sell. It is a vicious cycle that has trapped many clubs for years.
What happens to the relegated club
Whichever club goes down faces a difficult summer. The manager's future becomes the first question. The squad needs to be rebuilt with Championship-appropriate wages and expectations. Players with relegation release clauses will leave. Those without will agitate for moves. The transfer market becomes a seller's problem, not a buyer's opportunity.
Relegation also affects the following season's recruitment. Top targets are reluctant to join a Championship club. Agents steer their clients elsewhere. The clubs that bounce back quickly, like Leicester and Southampton in previous years, tend to do so by retaining a core of the relegated squad and adding Championship experience. It is a difficult balancing act.
For Tottenham specifically, relegation would be a historic catastrophe. The club has been in the top flight continuously since 1978, a run of 48 years. They have never been relegated from the Premier League. Ending that run would be a blow from which the club's hierarchy might not recover.
Historical precedent
Final-day relegation dramas have produced some of the most memorable moments in Premier League history. The "Great Escape" by West Brom in 2005, when they became the first club to survive after being bottom at Christmas. Sunderland's miraculous survival under Peter Reid. Aston Villa staying up on the final day in 2020 by the slimmest of margins.
More recently, Leeds themselves were relegated on the final day of the 2022-23 season, a painful experience they are now enduring again. Everton survived on the last day in both 2022 and 2023 before finally stabilizing under Moyes. The pattern is clear: final-day relegation battles are decided by fine margins, individual errors, and moments of brilliance or incompetence that live forever in the memory.
Predictions
The most likely outcome is that Tottenham survive. They have a two-point cushion, a superior goal difference, home advantage, and a squad that, for all its flaws, has more quality than West Ham's. A draw against Everton should be within their capabilities.
But nothing about this Tottenham season has followed logic. They have lost matches they should have won, drawn matches they should have lost, and consistently found new ways to disappoint their supporters. If any team is capable of losing at home to a mid-table Everton side with nothing to play for, it is this Spurs team.
Prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Everton. A tense, nervous game settled by a first-half Spurs goal and a second-half Everton equalizer. Enough to keep Tottenham up. West Ham beat Leeds 2-0 but it is not enough. The Hammers join Burnley, Wolves and Leeds in the Championship.
It is the most probable outcome. But on the final day of a Premier League season, probability is just a suggestion. Watch every relegation-deciding moment live with real-time scores on iScore.ai.